The largest takeaway from the School Soccer Playoff Committee’s first-round rankings was Notre Dame’s seven-spot slide from Sunday’s AP Ballot. Media pundits all got here away with the identical message: if Notre Dame loses to Miami this week, they’ll be eradicated from playoff competition.
Whereas I’d be blissful to write down off a Notre Dame crew with its personal particular guidelines, I feel we’re approach too fast to make Saturday’s matchup an elimination recreation. For starters, if Notre Dame wins a recreation they’re favorited by seven factors, this complete dialog is pointless. Two of their last three video games after this week shall be in South Bend, and their solely street journey will happen in Syracuse. I don’t actually see any extra losses cooked into the schedule for them.
Nevertheless, extra than simply profitable and ending this dialog, I nonetheless assume the Irish could make the playoffs with a win. For one, their present rating nonetheless is perhaps too excessive. They’re above a number of two-loss Large Ten and SEC groups that really have ranked wins on their resume. In fact, one other big-game loss may damage them, however how far do they fall in the event that they lose to the consensus finest crew within the nation?
Alabama is at present ranked fifth within the CFP rankings, they usually’ve seemed unimpressive exterior an early-season win over Kentucky, a crew that might simply end the season with 4 losses. ESPN claimed Alabama’s rating was as a result of their massive win over Mississippi State. That very same Bulldog squad that seemed incompetent with or with out Kamario Taylor of their lineup.
However for Notre Dame, the metrics nonetheless are inclined to favor them even with none spectacular wins on their resume. They’re eleventh in SOR, 1st in FPI, and sixth in Sport management. As talked about, they’re additionally -7 towards the number-one crew within the nation. Even when Notre Dame loses, they will decide up a win towards a stable SMU squad and will work their approach again into the top-12 by season finish.
The Large Ten and SEC have been cannibalizing one another at each flip this 12 months, and that will not change down the stretch. Except the committee does one thing surprising, like dropping Notre Dame out of the highest 20 with a loss, they’ll nonetheless be within the combine when the ultimate polls drop. In the event that they’re within the prime 12, they get to make the playoffs due to their dumb guidelines. Possibly most significantly, after retaining the Irish out final season, you’ll see the powers at be doing every little thing they will to place one of many largest TV markets into the playoffs.
