A deep, aggressive discipline has assembled for the 2026 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf Oct. 31 at Keeneland. Historical past may also help us slender down the contenders and determine the probably winner.
The Breeders’ Cup Turf dates again to 1984. Reviewing the historical past of the 1 ½-mile grass race reveals quite a lot of recurring traits bettors can use to gauge the strongest win candidates within the 2026 version.
Maintain the next eight historic traits in thoughts as your handicap the Breeders’ Cup Turf:
Late runners carry out finest
Horses rallying from off the tempo benefit from the strongest success within the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Since 2010, 12 out of 16 winners (75%) have been positioned no nearer than fifth place after the opening half-mile.
|
Yr |
Winner |
Place after first 1/2-mile |
1/2-mile & 3/4-mile instances (course situation) |
|
2025 |
Moral Diamond |
13th by 9.75 lengths (14 starters) |
47.53, 1:11.99 (agency) |
|
2024 |
Insurgent’s Romance |
3rd by 1 size (13 starters) |
48.77, 1:13.82 (agency) |
|
2023 |
Auguste Rodin |
8th by 4.25 lengths (11 starters) |
48.79, 1:12.66 (agency) |
|
2022 |
Insurgent’s Romance |
10th by 8.25 lengths (13 starters) |
49.42, 1:14.15 (agency) |
|
2021 |
Yibir |
13th by 13.5 lengths (14 starters) |
48.38, 1:12.41 (agency) |
|
2020 |
Tarnawa |
8th by 6.75 lengths (10 starters) |
51.06, 1:15.99 (agency) |
|
2019 |
Bricks and Mortar |
7th by 2.75 lengths (12 starters) |
48.44, 1:13.26 (agency) |
|
2018 |
Allow |
6th by 5 lengths (13 starters) |
49.11, 1:14.22 (good) |
|
2017 |
Talismanic |
5th by 3.5 lengths (13 starters) |
48.33, 1:12.86 (agency) |
|
2016 |
Highland Reel |
1st by 2.5 lengths (12 starters) |
48.00, 1:12.70 (agency) |
|
2015 |
Discovered |
7th by 26.75 size (12 starters) |
48.38, 1:12.64 (good) |
|
2014 |
Most important Sequence |
9th by 4 lengths (12 starters) |
47.76, 1:11.15 (good) |
|
2013 |
Magician |
11th by 14.5 size (12 starters) |
46.94, 1:10.67 (agency) |
|
2012 |
Little Mike |
3rd by 3.5 lengths (12 starters) |
46.77, 1:10.80 (agency) |
|
2011 |
St Nicholas Abbey |
5th by 3 lengths (9 starters) |
50.09, 1:14.67 (good) |
|
2010 |
Harmful Midge |
2nd by 2 lengths (7 starters) |
50.17, 1:15.91 (agency) |
Depend on the favourite to complete within the high 4
The betting favourite has recorded a top-four end in 15 of the final 18 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. They’ve been particularly efficient lately, taking first place 4 instances since 2018.
Worldwide raiders are dominant
No fewer than 23 of the final 28 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (82%) have been worldwide challengers based mostly exterior of North America. International runners have been particularly formidable since 2015, successful 10 of the final 11 editions of the Turf.
Favor horses bred exterior of North America
Do you know 27 of the 43 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (63%) have been bred exterior of North America? This tally contains 10 of the final 11 winners.
Horses bred in Eire have been particularly profitable within the Turf, successful 18 editions.
O’Brien and Appleby are formidable trainers
Coach Aidan O’Brien has received the Turf a file seven instances, all with Irish-breds. He’s scored 5 wins within the final 15 years with Auguste Rodin, Highland Reel, Discovered, Magician, and St. Nicholas Abbey. All informed, O’Brien has saddled 37 horses within the Turf, and 18 of them (49%) have completed third or higher.
Charlie Appleby is one other high coach within the Turf. He’s began eight horses in 5 editions of the Turf, and he’s secured three wins courtesy of Yibir and Insurgent’s Romance. Final yr, two Appleby runners completed second and third within the Turf.
Take into account horses ridden by Buick and Moore
Two lively jockeys have compiled sturdy information within the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
William Buick has ridden seven instances within the Turf, recording two wins and two seconds for a 29% win fee and a 57% in-the-money fee.
Ryan Moore’s file is even stronger. From 15 mounts within the Turf, he’s compiled 5 wins, 4 seconds, three thirds, and two fourths. His win fee is 33%, and 80% of his mounts have completed within the high three.
Wager confirmed Grade/Group 1 winners
For the reason that flip of the century, 22 out of 27 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners (81%) had beforehand received no less than one race on the Grade 1 or Group 1 stage.
Don’t underestimate fillies and mares
Though solely 16 fillies and mares have began within the Breeders’ Cup Turf since 2015, three of them (Discovered, Allow, and Tarnawa) have completed first. In each 2018 and 2020, females ran 1-2 within the Turf.
Conclusions
Historical past suggests #12 Diamond Necklace (3-1) is a powerful menace to win the 2026 Breeders’ Cup Turf.
An Irish-bred filly skilled by Aidan O’Brien, Diamond Necklace has received 4 Group 1 races in Europe. She usually rallies from midfield and exits a powerful third-place end in opposition to males within the prestigious Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in France.
The morning-line odds checklist Diamond Necklace as the favourite, so the one knock in opposition to her historic profile is the actual fact she received’t be ridden by Moore or Buick. Nonetheless, it’s encouraging to notice her jockey – Christophe Soumillon – received the 2005 Breeders’ Cup Turf aboard Shirocco.
One other formidable Irish-bred skilled by O’Brien is #2 Benvenuto Cellini (6-1). Winner of the Group 1 Irish Derby, Benvenuto Cellini exits a ninth-place end within the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, however through the summer season he completed a stable third in opposition to a deep discipline of older rivals within the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
Benvenuto Cellini is a late nearer, so he has the correct operating fashion for the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s an even bigger value than Diamond Necklace on the morning line, however he’ll be ridden by Ryan Moore, in order that’s a optimistic, particularly since three of O’Brien’s final 4 Turf winners have been guided by Moore.
Contemplating how effectively fillies and mares have carried out within the Turf since 2015, Diamond Necklace would possibly maintain a slight historic benefit over Benvenuto Cellini. However both could be an unsurprising winner from a historic perspective.
Benefit from the race!
