Via the many years, turf sprints have risen in prominence throughout the USA racing panorama. A number of the most fascinating, each from a sporting and handicapping perspective, happen over the downhill turf course at Santa Anita Park.
The downhill turf course is most famously used for sprints measuring about 6 1/2 furlongs in distance. The course begins on a hill and makes a right-hand flip earlier than sweeping to the left. It briefly crosses the dust observe earlier than becoming a member of the homestretch of the common turf course. In response to altitude information from Google Earth, the beginning of the downhill turf course sits almost 40 ft greater than the end line.
The distinctive nature of Santa Anita’s downhill turf sprints suggests they warrant particular handicapping consideration. Which jockeys experience finest on the course? Which operating kinds excel dashing down the hill? And do horses stretching out or chopping again in distance carry out higher?
We’ll search to reply all these questions and extra utilizing Equibase Race Lens, a wonderful software for crunching information and uncovering favorable betting angles. All information encompasses the previous 5 years.
Morning-line favorites
Do morning-line favorites run nicely in downhill turf sprints? Or does the distinctive configuration set off extra non-favored winners than typical?
Utilizing Race Lens, we’ve analyzed the performances of morning-line favorites in downhill turf sprints versus all turf races at Santa Anita in an effort to glean any variations.
|
Race class |
Begins |
Win % |
Place % |
Present % |
ROI |
|
Downhill turf sprints |
201 |
33% |
21% |
15% |
-16% |
|
All turf races |
2077 |
32% |
21% |
16% |
-20% |
It seems the win, place, and present percentages of morning-line favorites in downhill turf sprints are nearly an identical to these of favorites in all Santa Anita grass races. From a return-on-investment perspective, the 2 classes are likewise related (-16% vs. -20%).
Put up positions
Race Lens can be utilized to review the efficiency of particular person put up positions, or teams of put up positions. We analyzed how put up positions affect the outcomes of downhill turf sprints by dividing the put up positions into 4 classes: posts 1-3, posts 4-6, posts 7-9, and posts 10+. The outcomes are enlightening.
|
Put up Positions |
Begins |
Win % |
Place % |
Present % |
ROI |
|
1-3 |
633 |
13% |
12% |
12% |
-30% |
|
4-6 |
607 |
12% |
13% |
12% |
-29% |
|
7-9 |
389 |
10% |
12% |
11% |
-20% |
|
10+ |
117 |
14% |
9% |
10% |
75% |
Betting all horses breaking from double-digit put up positions is a worthwhile endeavor, producing a formidable 75% ROI. Over the previous 5 years, 11 out of 16 winners breaking from posts 10+ began at odds between 7-1 and 40-1, suggesting bettors could also be underestimating the possibilities of these runners.
In the reduction of or stretch out?
The about 6 1/2-furlong distance of Santa Anita’s downhill turf sprints is longer than many grass dashes, however nonetheless a lot shorter than a route race. So is it higher to wager horses stretching out in distance or chopping again in journey? Or, alternatively, do you have to favor distance specialists exiting a race over 6 1/2 furlongs?
Right here’s what the Race Lens information reveals:
|
Final race |
Begins |
Win % |
Place % |
Present % |
ROI |
|
Longer distance |
672 |
11% |
11% |
13% |
-12% |
|
Shorter distance |
682 |
12% |
11% |
12% |
-25% |
|
Identical distance |
391 |
14% |
16% |
10% |
-27% |
Horses exiting races shorter than 6 1/2 furlongs and horses exiting races longer than 6 1/2 furlongs compile related win percentages (12% vs. 11%) in downhill turf sprints. Nonetheless, you’ll lose much less cash (-12% ROI vs. -25% ROI) betting the runners who’re chopping again in distance.
Horses exiting a race at 6 1/2 furlongs (or about 6 1/2 furlongs) obtain a considerably greater win share (14%), however additionally they generate the poorest ROI (-27%), suggesting they’re a bit overbet.
Working kinds
Race Lens teams horses into plenty of completely different operating fashion classes: early, early/presser, presser, sustained/presser, and sustained. There’s additionally the projected chief (the horse that Race Lens predicts will lead on the first name) and “unknown” horses with out an assigned operating fashion.
Do any of those operating kinds outperform the others in downhill turf sprints? Let’s discover out.
|
Working fashion |
Begins |
Win % |
Place % |
Present % |
ROI |
|
Projected chief |
205 |
20% |
16% |
17% |
6% |
|
Early |
423 |
14% |
14% |
13% |
-25% |
|
Early/presser |
374 |
9% |
9% |
9% |
-11% |
|
Presser |
367 |
17% |
15% |
11% |
-6% |
|
Sustained/presser |
98 |
6% |
9% |
18% |
-28% |
|
Sustained |
397 |
11% |
12% |
13% |
-27% |
|
Unknown |
22 |
0% |
9% |
14% |
-100% |
Impressively, betting Race Lens projected leaders in downhill sprints has been a worthwhile train, producing a 20% win charge and +6% ROI. The angle has produced a number of profitable longshots previously 5 years, with winners beginning at 12-1, 20-1, and 31-1.
In any other case, pressers carry out finest with a 17% win charge and a virtually break-even -6% ROI.
Jockeys
During the last 5 years, 5 jockeys have received greater than 100 turf races at Santa Anita: Juan Hernandez, Umberto Rispoli, Hector Berrios, Antonio Fresu, and Flavien Prat.
First, we’ll use StatsMaster (powered by TrackMaster, an Equibase firm) to element how these jockeys have carried out in all turf races at Santa Anita. Then we’ll use Race Lens to single out their information in downhill turf sprints and examine the 2 outcomes:
All Santa Anita turf races
|
Jockey |
Begins |
Win % |
Place % |
Present % |
ROI |
|
Juan Hernandez |
1493 |
19% |
17% |
15% |
-16% |
|
Umberto Rispoli |
1118 |
20% |
17% |
16% |
-19% |
|
Flavien Prat |
527 |
26% |
21% |
13% |
-20% |
|
Hector Berrios |
899 |
19% |
17% |
14% |
-8% |
|
Antonio Fresu |
897 |
18% |
17% |
14% |
-7% |
Downhill turf sprints
|
Jockey |
Begins |
Win % |
Place % |
Present % |
ROI |
|
Juan Hernandez |
165 |
18% |
14% |
13% |
-15% |
|
Umberto Rispoli |
136 |
15% |
17% |
12% |
-24% |
|
Flavien Prat |
68 |
19% |
25% |
16% |
-45% |
|
Hector Berrios |
107 |
15% |
18% |
17% |
-30% |
|
Antonio Fresu |
92 |
16% |
20% |
14% |
-24% |
All 5 jockeys we studied compiled decrease win percentages in downhill turf sprints than in all turf races at Santa Anita.
The smallest dip got here from Hernandez, who went from a 19% win charge in all turf races to an 18% charge in downhill turf sprints. The most important drop got here from Flavien Prat, whose win charge decreased from 26% to 19%, although his 19% win charge remains to be the very best in downhill turf sprints among the many 5 jockeys we analyzed.
Hernandez got here out on high from an ROI perspective. His -15% ROI is barely higher than his -16% ROI in all Santa Anita turf races.
Conclusions
After analyzing the info, listed here are our principal handicapping takeaways:
Guess the horse that Race Lens initiatives would be the early chief. It’s been a worthwhile betting angle over the past 5 years, producing a +6% ROI.
Put up positions 10+ are advantageous. This group produced the very best win share amongst put up place teams we studied, and betting all horses breaking from posts 10+ yielded a +75% ROI.
Horses chopping again in distance are typically underestimated in downhill turf sprints. Blindly betting all of them yields a decent -12% ROI.
Based mostly on the performances of morning-line favorites, downhill turf sprints aren’t any roughly predictable than different turf races at Santa Anita.
Juan Hernandez is likely one of the high jockeys using in downhill turf sprints. Whereas a number of of Santa Anita’s different main grass riders put up decrease win charges and ROIs when using in downhill turf sprints, Hernandez’s numbers (18% win charge, -15% ROI) hardly shift in any respect from his general Santa Anita grass stats.
The Santa Anita autumn meet runs from Sept. 25 by Nov. 1. Armed with these Race Lens statistics and takeaways, you’re able to hit the downhill turf sprints onerous. Good luck!
Particular because of Equibase, which supplied me with a free subscription to Race Lens in alternate for product promotion. All opinions stay my very own.
